The Dow Jones Technical Analysis - A Specialist in Technical Analysis

For Aug, 15 2014

(Individual Chart Analysis)

This is a no-frills analysis.  It is not designed to look good, it is designed to be effective. 


Summary of the Technical Analysis for the DOW

(This takes into account the near term, mid term, and longer term charts)

Our combined analysis for Friday tells us to expect the market to begin the day looking for direction, and if the market manages to hold initial support it should continue to increase like it did on Thursday.  Only if the market breaks below initial support levels should we become concerned on a technical basis, because our combined analysis will tell us to beware of momentum driven declines if the market breaks below initial support.  For now, the chart patterns look generally positive, there are no immediate signs of concern, but if the market breaks below initial support all that will change and the market will then be capable of falling aggressively to the lowest midterm support lines.  Again, those red flags have not surfaced, so for now the exact opposite read stands.  Our combined analysis tells us to expect a progression towards the highest resistance levels if initial support levels remain intact.

Initial intraday trading parameters for the DOW exist between16590 - 16850
If 16590 breaks lower expect 16500
If16850breaks higher expect 17600
Otherwise expect16590 - 16850 to hold

If 16590 remains in tact as initial support, expect the market to increase to 16850. This reflects a tight near term down channel. However, and in line with our combined analysis, if 16590 breaks lower instead expect the market to decline to 16500 before it stabilizes again.


NEAR Term Analysis

Our combined near-term analysis tells us that the markets are in upward sloping near-term patterns but the S&P 500, Dow Jones industrial average and Russell 2000 are all relatively close to their upward sloping support lines.  The NASDAQ is not, but upward sloping support in the other markets act as inflection.  Upward sloping support must remain intact, and if it does the market is likely to continue to increase towards upward sloping resistance, but if upward sloping support breaks lower the existing upward sloping channels will dissolve and neutral channels will prevail.

NEAR Term Support for the DOW exists at 16675

NEAR Term Resistance for the DOW exists at 16875

Dow_5_day


MID Term Analysis

Our combined midterm analysis tells us that the markets are breaking above midterm intra channel resistance levels, and although they look tired after doing so they are still above former levels of resistance and positioned to increase to the next levels of midterm resistance as offered in our midterm charts.  This will remain true unless the markets reverse down again, below their recently broken resistance levels, which have now been converted into support.  Therefore, if the markets hold these former levels of resistance, converted support levels, we should expect a progression higher to the highest resistance levels, but if the markets reverse down and break below these now converted support levels we should instead be ready for momentum driven declines to the lowest midterm support levels instead.

MID Term Support for the DOW exists at 16616

MID Term Resistance for the DOW exists at 16824

Dow_30_day


LONG Term Analysis

Our combined longer-term analysis shows us that DOJI patterns exist in the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones industrial average given last week's volatility and indecisiveness.  But the Dow Jones industrial average also tested its upward sloping support line, and thus far the Dow Jones industrial average is holding longer-term upward sloping support.  So long as that remains true the longer-term chart of the Dow Jones industrial average will tell us to expect a progression towards resistance.  Only if longer-term upward sloping support breaks lower in the Dow Jones industrial average will that market tell us to expect momentum driven declines.  By rule, because support is currently holding, as long as it does we should expect higher levels from the market.

LONG Term Support for the DOW exists at 16578

LONG Term Resistance for the DOW exists at 17660

Dow_1_year