The Dow Jones Technical Analysis - A Specialist in Technical Analysis

For Jul, 03 2014

(Individual Chart Analysis)

This is a no-frills analysis.  It is not designed to look good, it is designed to be effective. 


Summary of the Technical Analysis for the DOW

(This takes into account the near term, mid term, and longer term charts)

Our combined analysis for Thursday tells us to expect the market to begin the day with a bias to decline and if resistance lines remain intact we should expect the market to progress lower towards initial support and midterm upward sloping support respectively.  Although the market has tested resistance and a progression down towards support should be expected, this is also happening within an upward sloping channel and therefore a simple oscillation from resistance to support will not in itself break the sentiment that currently exists.  In order for the sentiment to shift from positive to neutral upward sloping support would also need to break, but our combined analysis at this time tells us that the markets are not yet testing support.  Based on our combined analysis a test of support should be expected so long as resistance lines remain intact, and if support is tested we should also treat it as inflection.  If support remains intact we should expect the upward sloping channels to also hold, but if support breaks lower the market is capable of shifting from positive to neutral.

Initial intraday trading parameters for the DOW exist between16951 - 17004
If 16951 breaks lower expect 16863
If17004breaks higher expect 17400
Otherwise expect16951 - 17004 to hold

If 16951 remains in tact as initial support, expect the market to increase to 17004. This reflects a tight near term down channel. However, and in line with our combined analysis, if 16951 breaks lower instead expect the market to decline to 16863 before it stabilizes again.


NEAR Term Analysis

Our combined near-term analysis tells us that the market is likely to begin the day with a bias to decline if the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 remain under resistance levels as it opens on Thursday and if resistance levels remain intact we should see a progression down towards near-term support lines.  According to our combined near-term analysis the market is in a neutral channel but resistance has been tested and a progression towards the lowest support level has already begun, so our near-term analysis is simply saying that we should expect that progression to continue.

NEAR Term Support for the DOW exists at 16951

NEAR Term Resistance for the DOW exists at 16999

Dow_5_day


MID Term Analysis

Our combined midterm analysis tells us that the midterm up-channels are holding, resistance lines were tested, and a progression down towards support should now take place.  According to our combined midterm analysis support is a higher low, definitive of the upward sloping channel, but a decline towards that support level appears likely nonetheless.  Overall, our combined midterm analysis is positive given the upward sloping nature of the channels, but because resistance was tested a decline to support should be expected.  Bearish chart patterns will only occur if support breaks.  

MID Term Support for the DOW exists at 16780

MID Term Resistance for the DOW exists at 17010

Dow_30_day


LONG Term Analysis

Our combined longer-term analysis tells us that longer-term resistance, converted resistance, was tested in the Russell 2000, but the NASDAQ is trying to break out.  Only if the NASDAQ reverses completely and falls back below 4398 would our longer-term chart pattern for the NASDAQ become bearish again, but thus far the longer term pattern for the NASDAQ is positive given the break above 4398 that happened earlier in the week.  If the market reverses lower that will change completely, but for now there is a positive bias from our longer term chart patterns.

LONG Term Support for the DOW exists at 16300

LONG Term Resistance for the DOW exists at 17500

Dow_1_year