The Dow Jones Technical Analysis - A Specialist in Technical Analysis

For Nov, 03 2014

(Individual Chart Analysis)

This is a no-frills analysis.  It is not designed to look good, it is designed to be effective. 


Summary of the Technical Analysis for the DOW

(This takes into account the near term, mid term, and longer term charts)

Our combined analysis for Monday tells us to expect the market to begin the day looking for direction, a modest pullback could occur and tests of support could occur, but the market would need to break below multiple support levels in order to dissolve the positive bias that currently exists.  In addition, our longer term chart patterns have been adjusted and they also point towards higher levels after last week's increase and breakout.  Therefore, according to our combined analysis, after what could likely be some early confusion a continuation towards the new upward sloping resistance lines offered in our combined longer-term charts is likely.  Immediately, our combined analysis is relatively bullish but the new upward sloping resistance lines in our longer term charts now also act as a headwind and an actionable trading catalyst.  Our combined longer-term analysis is positive, it does suggest higher market levels, but the upside target is now within striking distance after last week's increase.  Expect the market to begin the day looking for direction, but if support remains intact expect the positive bias to continue.  Only if support breaks should we expect a neutral environment on Monday.

Initial intraday trading parameters for the DOW exist between17320 - 17515
If 17320 breaks lower expect 17195
If17515breaks higher expect 17650
Otherwise expect17320 - 17515 to hold

If 17320 remains in tact as initial support, expect the market to increase to 17515. This reflects a tight near term down channel. However, and in line with our combined analysis, if 17320 breaks lower instead expect the market to decline to 17195 before it stabilizes again.


NEAR Term Analysis

Our combined near-term analysis tells us that the market has a neutral support lines that is the low from Friday's session, but the resistance line is upward sloping and so long as the market remains above the lows that were established on Friday, it is likely to trend higher and test upward sloping resistance.  If the neutral support line that was established on Friday breaks target the next level of neutral support in our near term chart patterns instead.

NEAR Term Support for the DOW exists at 17320

NEAR Term Resistance for the DOW exists at 17525

Dow_5_day


MID Term Analysis

Our combined midterm analysis tells us that the markets are in upward sloping midterm patterns and although the Dow Jones industrial average and Russell 2000 appear to have tested midterm upward sloping resistance, the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 are doing the opposite and increasing from support instead.  The current upward sloping patterns suggest that the markets should continue to oscillate within an upward sloping cycle unless support levels break lower so treat support as inflection and use the S&P 500 as a general guide.  If the upward sloping support line breaks there is a neutral support line close by, so it would require both a break of the upward sloping support line and the relatively close neutral support line in the S&P 500 to change this otherwise positive environment.  Expect higher levels if support holds but be prepared for a retracement back to recent lows if both the upward sloping support line and the neutral support line that is relatively close to it break.

MID Term Support for the DOW exists at 17170

MID Term Resistance for the DOW exists at 17500

Dow_30_day


LONG Term Analysis

Our combined longer-term analysis has changed.  The reversal higher in the market last week caused the patterns to change and although the markets did not RE engage the upward sloping channels that began in the early part of 2013, those are still broken and officially dissolved, new upward sloping channels developed given the bounce back that occurred from the recent drubbing.  According to our combined longer-term analysis the market is now within striking distance of the new upward sloping resistance lines that exist in most markets.  According to our combined longer-term analysis we should expect the market to continue to increase and test upward sloping resistance so long as it remains above the recently broken neutral resistance lines in the S&P 500, Dow Jones industrial average, and NASDAQ.  These were all former highs, the market has broken above them slightly, and if the market remains above these levels a test of upward sloping resistance should be expected, but if the markets immediately break back below these now converted neutral support lines, which were once resistance, the upward sloping channels could possibly change into neutral ones.  Right now, our combined longer-term analysis points to higher levels and a test of upward sloping resistance before the market pulls back towards upward sloping support again.

LONG Term Support for the DOW exists at 16400

LONG Term Resistance for the DOW exists at 17650

Dow_1_year