The Dow Jones Technical Analysis - A Specialist in Technical Analysis

For Nov, 06 2014

(Individual Chart Analysis)

This is a no-frills analysis.  It is not designed to look good, it is designed to be effective. 


Summary of the Technical Analysis for the DOW

(This takes into account the near term, mid term, and longer term charts)

Our combined analysis for Thursday tells us to respect initial support because support in the dow Jones industrial average, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 is midterm upward sloping support.  In addition, it tells us that the initial resistance levels for the Dow Jones industrial average and S&P 500 can be considered upside confirmation catalysts.  In other words, if midterm upward sloping support remains intact and the market begins to increase a break of near-term resistance, which is initial resistance in our combined data tables for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones industrial average, would also occur.  Therefore, if the market breaks above these levels we could consider that to be an open door for further increases to the midterm upward sloping resistance lines for the Dow Jones industrial average and S&P 500.  The midterm chart patterns are our focus, and support was being tested on Wednesday, and thus far support is holding.  If it continues to hold we are likely to see the market increase, upside confirmation catalysts confirmed, and a progression towards midterm upward sloping resistance to follow, but if the midterm upward sloping support lines which are identified as initial support in our combined data tables for the Dow Jones industrial average, S&P 500, and Russell 2000, break lower instead neutral midterm patterns are likely in the markets are likely to fall back down rather violently.  Treat upward sloping support as inflection as that is identified in the midterm chart patterns at this time.

Initial intraday trading parameters for the DOW exist between17405 - 17486
If 17405 breaks lower expect 17282
If17486breaks higher expect 17650
Otherwise expect17405 - 17486 to hold

If 17405 remains in tact as initial support, expect the market to increase to 17486. This reflects a tight near term down channel. However, and in line with our combined analysis, if 17405 breaks lower instead expect the market to decline to 17282 before it stabilizes again.


NEAR Term Analysis

Our combined near-term analysis tells us that the Dow Jones industrial average and S&P 500 are testing near-term levels of resistance, neutral resistance lines, while the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 flounder.  That tells us to respect the near term chart patterns of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial average more than the other markets, and because resistance is being tested in those markets we should treat resistance in the Dow Jones industrial average and S&P 500 as inflection.  If resistance remains intact expect the neutral near-term channels that exist now to prevail and a turn down to neutral support to follow, but if near term neutral resistance as that is shown in our near term charts breaks higher instead upward sloping near-term patterns are likely.

NEAR Term Support for the DOW exists at 17391

NEAR Term Resistance for the DOW exists at 17486

Dow_5_day


MID Term Analysis

Our combined midterm analysis tells us that the Russell 2000, Dow Jones industrial average, and S&P 500 are all testing (have tested) midterm upward sloping support and so long as support remains intact the markets are likely to trend higher and make higher highs as they proceed to test midterm upward sloping resistance.  The catalyst is support and the market's ability or inability to hold support, so if support breaks it should also be respected.  If midterm upward sloping support breaks lower instead we should expect the markets to fall down to neutral support lines as those are shown in the midterm chart patterns of the markets mentioned above and neutral midterm trading patterns to prevail.  Importantly, neutral support is far away from upward sloping support, suggesting that a break of upward sloping support could be followed by aggressive decline.

MID Term Support for the DOW exists at 17420

MID Term Resistance for the DOW exists at 17800

Dow_30_day


LONG Term Analysis

Our combined longer-term analysis has changed.  The reversal higher in the market last week caused the patterns to change and although the markets did not RE engage the upward sloping channels that began in the early part of 2013, those are still broken and officially dissolved, new upward sloping channels developed given the bounce back that occurred from the recent drubbing.  According to our combined longer-term analysis the market is now within striking distance of the new upward sloping resistance lines that exist in most markets.  According to our combined longer-term analysis we should expect the market to continue to increase and test upward sloping resistance so long as it remains above the recently broken neutral resistance lines in the S&P 500, Dow Jones industrial average, and NASDAQ.  These were all former highs, the market has broken above them slightly, and if the market remains above these levels a test of upward sloping resistance should be expected, but if the markets immediately break back below these now converted neutral support lines, which were once resistance, the upward sloping channels could possibly change into neutral ones.  Right now, our combined longer-term analysis points to higher levels and a test of upward sloping resistance before the market pulls back towards upward sloping support again.

LONG Term Support for the DOW exists at 16400

LONG Term Resistance for the DOW exists at 17650

Dow_1_year