The S&P 500 Technical Analysis - A Specialist in Technical Analysis

For Nov, 24 2014

(Individual Chart Analysis)

This is a no-frills analysis.  It is not designed to look good, it is designed to be effective. 


Summary of the Technical Analysis for the S&P 500

(This takes into account the near term, mid term, and longer term charts)

Our combined analysis for Monday tells us to expect the market to begin the day flirting with initial levels of support and if initial levels of support remain intact we should see another test of the highs that were established on Friday.  However, our combined analysis also tells us that the markets are already pulling back from midterm resistance towards midterm support; they have retraced about 50% of the new upward sloping channel that developed after Friday's increase, and therefore our combined analysis points towards continued decline below initial support levels.  Initial support should be treated as inflection because if it holds the market is likely to test Friday's highs again, but if it breaks the midterm upward sloping channels that exist now, that developed after Friday's increase, are likely to be satisfied with a decline to midterm upward sloping support respectively.  Therefore, if initial support breaks we should expect a test of midterm upward sloping support.  As far as our longer term charts are concerned, they are now offering positive signs that did not exist before.  Those positive signs come from the Dow Jones industrial average, but in order for those positive signs to remain in place the NASDAQ, which tested its longer term resistance level perfectly on Friday and then began to turn down already, would also need to break above its longer term resistance line.  Before Friday longer-term resistance levels were only being tested, but now the Dow Jones industrial average appears to be breaking out above longer term resistance.  The other markets will need to join the Dow Jones industrial average for this to become official, and for all markets to increase, but thus far there is a positive bias that did not exist before given the breaks of longer term resistance in the Dow Jones industrial average.

Initial intraday trading parameters for the S&P 500 exist between2054 - 2072
If 2054 breaks lower expect 2040
If2072breaks higher expect 2100
Otherwise expect2054 - 2072 to hold

If 2054 remains in tact as initial support, expect the market to increase to 2072. This reflects a tight near term down channel. However, and in line with our combined analysis, if 2054 breaks lower instead expect the market to decline to 2040 before it stabilizes again.


NEAR Term Analysis

Our combined near-term analysis tells us that the market tested an intra channel level of support on Friday and thus far that support level is holding.  If that support level continues to hold we should expect a test of the near-term resistance lines, or the highs that were established on Friday respectively.  Conversely, if the intra channel support line breaks lower the markets are likely to fall to the next level of support as that is defined in the neutral trend lines offered in our combined near-term analysis.  The inflection point is intra channel support respectively.

NEAR Term Support for the S&P 500 exists at 2056

NEAR Term Resistance for the S&P 500 exists at 2071

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MID Term Analysis

Our combined midterm analysis tells us that the markets are in midterm upward sloping channels, the upward sloping channels became steeper on Friday given the breaks that occurred, but the markets have also already begun to fall back from midterm upward sloping resistance.  According to our midterm analysis the markets are about halfway back down towards support, so they have already retraced about 50% of the channel, and according to our combined midterm analysis they are likely to continue to decline until midterm upward sloping support is tested in the Dow Jones industrial average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ respectively.

MID Term Support for the S&P 500 exists at 2052

MID Term Resistance for the S&P 500 exists at 2073

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LONG Term Analysis

Our combined longer-term analysis tells us that the Dow Jones industrial average is breaking out above its longer term resistance line, but the NASDAQ tested its longer term resistance level perfectly before pulling back slightly.  The S&P 500 is still under its longer term resistance line as well.  These three markets appear also to be in relative parity because they are flirting with upward sloping resistance levels, but the Russell 2000 is not in parity with these other markets because it remains in a neutral longer term pattern and appears much weaker than those other markets.  However, given the breaks that have been taking place in the Dow Jones industrial average there is a positive bias stemming from our longer-term analysis that did not exist when longer-term resistance levels were merely being tested.  Now that breaks are happening in the dow Jones industrial average it is reasonable to assume that breaks could happen in the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 unless the markets pullback immediately.  Our combined longer-term analysis is therefore positively biased but with the understanding that the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 will also need to break above their respective midterm upward sloping resistance lines in order for that positive bias to remain intact.

LONG Term Support for the S&P 500 exists at 2009

LONG Term Resistance for the S&P 500 exists at 2100

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