The Dow Jones Technical Analysis - A Specialist in Technical Analysis

For Sep, 16 2014

(Individual Chart Analysis)

This is a no-frills analysis.  It is not designed to look good, it is designed to be effective. 


Summary of the Technical Analysis for the DOW

(This takes into account the near term, mid term, and longer term charts)

Our combined analysis for Tuesday tells us to expect the market to begin the day with a bias to decline and the ability or the inability of the market to hold resistance as that is defined in our combined data tables will likely govern market direction on Tuesday.  If initial resistance levels remain intact the market is likely to decline and test initial support as that is defined in our combined data tables, and it could get worse because the midterm and longer term charts do point to lower levels as well, but if initial resistance breaks higher a modest increase is likely before the market hits the next level of resistance.  Our inflection parameter for Tuesday is initial resistance, but by rule we should expect resistance to hold unless it breaks and as of the close on Monday resistance was holding.  If it continues to hold we should expect downward pressure on the market in line with the midterm and longer term observations.

Initial intraday trading parameters for the DOW exist between16930 - 17049
If 16930 breaks lower expect 16840
If17049breaks higher expect 17125
Otherwise expect16930 - 17049 to hold

If 16930 remains in tact as initial support, expect the market to increase to 17049. This reflects a tight near term down channel. However, and in line with our combined analysis, if 16930 breaks lower instead expect the market to decline to 16840 before it stabilizes again.


NEAR Term Analysis

Our combined near-term analysis tells us that all of the markets have tested resistance, but the chart patterns are not congruent and the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 are weaker than the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial average.  However, if resistance lines remain intact our combined analysis tells us to expect the market to begin the day with a bias to decline as it opens on Tuesday and a progression towards support is likely in all markets.  If resistance breaks higher a more modest increase to the next neutral resistance level is likely.

NEAR Term Support for the DOW exists at 16930

NEAR Term Resistance for the DOW exists at 17049

Dow_5_day


MID Term Analysis

Our combined midterm analysis tells us that the market is in the process of pulling back from neutral midterm resistance lines and if neutral resistance lines remain intact a continued progression to the lowest level of neutral midterm support is likely.

MID Term Support for the DOW exists at 16840

MID Term Resistance for the DOW exists at 17081

Dow_30_day


LONG Term Analysis

Our combined longer-term analysis tells us to expect the market to trend lower because the engulfing red candles in the S&P 500 and especially in the Dow Jones industrial average suggest that the market is capable of turning down aggressively.  With specific regard to the Dow Jones industrial average, if the market does continue to turn down a double top will have been established and momentum driven declines will be likely with the first stop at 16341.  Our combined longer-term analysis points to lower levels and the DOJI patterns that existed last week have been negatively engulfed. In order for this bearish indicator to change the Dow Jones industrial average would need to move above 17157 and hold.

LONG Term Support for the DOW exists at 16341

LONG Term Resistance for the DOW exists at 17157

Dow_1_year