The Dow Jones Technical Analysis - A Specialist in Technical Analysis

For Jan, 05 2015

(Individual Chart Analysis)

This is a no-frills analysis.  It is not designed to look good, it is designed to be effective. 


Summary of the Technical Analysis for the DOW

(This takes into account the near term, mid term, and longer term charts)

Our combined analysis for Monday tells us to expect the market to begin the day looking for direction as new near-term patterns develop, but according to our combined midterm analysis the market has room to fall before midterm support levels are tested and according to our combined longer-term analysis the market is already beginning to decline from longer-term resistance towards longer term support levels again.  Although the market may begin the day looking for direction given the lack of parity in the near term chart patterns, our combined analysis actually suggests that lower levels are likely thereafter.  Only if the S&P 500 broke above 2079 again would that change, so as long as the S&P 500 remains below 2079 downside pressure will exist and the risk of aggressive declines will be high.

Initial intraday trading parameters for the DOW exist between17737 - 17950
If 17737 breaks lower expect 17384
If17950breaks higher expect 18100
Otherwise expect17737 - 17950 to hold

If 17737 remains in tact as initial support, expect the market to increase to 17950. This reflects a tight near term down channel. However, and in line with our combined analysis, if 17737 breaks lower instead expect the market to decline to 17384 before it stabilizes again.


NEAR Term Analysis

Our combined near-term analysis tells us that new near-term channels are developing, but the NASDAQ is in a downward sloping near-term pattern.  The other markets are not in that same pattern, but new near-term patterns are absolutely developing across the board.  Immediately, our combined near-term analysis tells us to watch down channel resistance in the NASDAQ, but also initial support in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial average.  We do not currently see parity in the near term chart patterns but expect to as new near-term patterns develop.

NEAR Term Support for the DOW exists at 17820

NEAR Term Resistance for the DOW exists at 17941

Dow_5_day


MID Term Analysis

Our combined midterm analysis tells us that the markets have tested midterm resistance, the highest level of resistance in our midterm chart patterns, they have broken below the downside confirmation catalysts too, but they have not yet progressed to the midterm support levels identified in our charts.  According to our combined midterm analysis we should expect the markets to progress lower and test the lowest neutral support lines in our midterm chart patterns as a result, and only if the markets break back above the neutral intra channel resistance lines that acted as downside confirmation catalysts would that change.  Continue to monitor 2079 in the S&P 500 as a result.

MID Term Support for the DOW exists at 17384

MID Term Resistance for the DOW exists at 17967

Dow_30_day


LONG Term Analysis

Our combined longer-term analysis tells us that the markets are beginning to pull back from official tests of longer term resistance and if this pullback continues a test of upward sloping support is likely.  According to our combined analysis the market has already begun to pull back and our longer-term analysis tells us to expect that to continue unless the markets break above the resistance lines that were already tested.  Our combined longer-term analysis does show that an upward sloping longer term patterns are intact but the oscillation from resistance to support that appears to be taking place is a bearish signal.

LONG Term Support for the DOW exists at 16700

LONG Term Resistance for the DOW exists at 18100

Dow_1_year