The Dow Jones Technical Analysis - A Specialist in Technical Analysis

For Jul, 09 2015

(Individual Chart Analysis)

This is a no-frills analysis.  It is not designed to look good, it is designed to be effective. 


Summary of the Technical Analysis for the DOW

(This takes into account the near term, mid term, and longer term charts)

Our combined analysis for Thursday tells us to expect the market to begin the day flirting with initial levels of support and if support lines remain intact it tells us to expect the markets to increase to lower highs.  Downward sloping channels exist, so downward pressure will still exist even if the market bounces according to our combined analysis, but the downside risk has also increased measurably.  If support lines break instead the already downward sloping midterm trend lines will get even steeper and the door will open even wider for a retracement back towards October's lows as those are defined in the longer-term chart patterns as well.  Our longer term charts are already bearish and already pointing to material market declines.

Initial intraday trading parameters for the DOW exist between17466 - 17600
If 17466 breaks lower expect 16370
If17600breaks higher expect 17925
Otherwise expect17466 - 17600 to hold

If 17466 remains in tact as initial support, expect the market to increase to 17600. This reflects a tight near term down channel. However, and in line with our combined analysis, if 17466 breaks lower instead expect the market to decline to 16370 before it stabilizes again.


NEAR Term Analysis

Our combined near-term analysis tells us to respect support as inflection.  It is interesting because our combined near-term analysis is also discounting the surge that occurred late in the day on Tuesday in all markets except the NASDAQ.  According to our combined near-term analysis the market should begin the day flirting with near-term support levels and if those levels hold we should see a retracement to a lower high, but if near term neutral support breaks lower in the S&P 500, dow Jones industrial average, and Russell aggressive market declines are likely to follow because no additional support levels exist under these levels.

NEAR Term Support for the DOW exists at 17446

NEAR Term Resistance for the DOW exists at 17600

Dow_5_day


MID Term Analysis

Our combined midterm analysis tells us that the markets are flirting with midterm down channel support lines again without increasing to test midterm down channel resistance lines.  This opens the door for steeper midterm downward sloping channels to develop.  If midterm downward sloping support breaks lower expect steeper midterm downward sloping channels to follow.  This would be a bearish indicator.  However, if support lines remain intact expect a retracement to a lower high as we have indicated before.

MID Term Support for the DOW exists at 17485

MID Term Resistance for the DOW exists at 17925

Dow_30_day


LONG Term Analysis

Our combined longer-term analysis tells us that the markets have broken longer-term upward sloping support lines and they are beginning to fall back towards their neutral longer term support lines now.  Neutral longer term support exists somewhere near October's lows (from last year).

LONG Term Support for the DOW exists at 18283

LONG Term Resistance for the DOW exists at 19700

Dow_1_year