The Dow Jones Technical Analysis - A Specialist in Technical Analysis

For Mar, 19 2015

(Individual Chart Analysis)

This is a no-frills analysis.  It is not designed to look good, it is designed to be effective. 


Summary of the Technical Analysis for the DOW

(This takes into account the near term, mid term, and longer term charts)

Our combined analysis for Thursday tells us to expect the market to begin the day with a bias to increase and because the longer term charts now tell us that the market is breaking back above the converted neutral intra channel support lines that acted as our downside confirmation catalysts in the longer term chart patterns a much more positive tone is prevailing.  The markets will need to hold these levels, indicated by initial support levels in our combined data tables, and if they do our combined analysis will tell us to expect a solid rally from the market with an upside target of about 2150 in the S&P 500.  The market is right on the cusp, however, and 2097 must hold for that positive outlook to prevail.  The market is above this level, suggesting that 2150 be tested accordingly, but this week is not over and if the market falls back our combined longer-term analysis will tell us to expect 1975 instead, so consider the market's ability or inability to hold 2097, 18,060 in the Dow Jones industrial average, to be critical to the sentiment stemming from our combined analysis at this time.  We are, because the market is slightly above these levels, currently holding a slightly positive bias and if the market holds these levels that will be solidified.  If it breaks, that will change.

Initial intraday trading parameters for the DOW exist between18284 - 18010
If 18284 breaks lower expect 18400
If18010breaks higher expect 17710
Otherwise expect18284 - 18010 to hold

If 18284 remains in tact as initial support, expect the market to increase to 18010. This reflects a tight near term down channel. However, and in line with our combined analysis, if 18284 breaks lower instead expect the market to decline to 18400 before it stabilizes again.


NEAR Term Analysis

Our combined near-term analysis tells us that all markets spiked at the end of the day but declined abruptly from that mountain peak to test a converted level of support and that converted level of near-term support is our inflection level for Thursday accordingly.  If the markets remain above this level our combined near-term analysis tells us to expect the markets to blow past the peak that was established late in the day on Wednesday, but if the markets reverse back below the intra channel support line a declined down to the next level of neutral near term support is likely instead.

NEAR Term Support for the DOW exists at 17710

NEAR Term Resistance for the DOW exists at 18032

Dow_5_day


MID Term Analysis

Our combined midterm analysis tells us that the Dow Jones industrial average has plenty of room to increase to test its neutral resistance line, the NASDAQ is within striking distance of its neutral resistance line, and the S&P 500 is somewhere in between.  The Russell 2000 is in an upward sloping midterm pattern now, so our combined midterm analysis suggests higher levels, modestly so in most markets, and tests of midterm resistance lines accordingly.  If resistance remains intact we should expect a progression lower after resistance is tested, but if resistance lines break higher all of the markets can develop upward sloping channels like the Russell 2000 already has.

MID Term Support for the DOW exists at 17978

MID Term Resistance for the DOW exists at 18284

Dow_30_day


LONG Term Analysis

Our combined longer-term analysis tells us that the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial average are breaking back above the neutral intra channel support lines that acted as our downside confirmation catalysts when they broke lower a couple weeks ago.  This opens the door for another test of upward sloping resistance in those markets, and if that happens the NASDAQ is likely to establish a higher high.  The Russell 2000 has much more room to increase than these other markets as well, according to its longer term chart pattern.  If the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial average remain above these levels (2097 and 18060) we should expect the markets to continue to increase to test their upward sloping resistance lines accordingly.  Our combined longer-term analysis tells us that everything rests on these converted support lines that the market has started to break back above again.

LONG Term Support for the DOW exists at 17000

LONG Term Resistance for the DOW exists at 18060

Dow_1_year