The NASDAQ Technical Analysis - A Specialist in Technical Analysis

 

For Mar, 13 2015

(Individual Chart Analysis)

This is a no-frills analysis.  It is not designed to look good, it is designed to be effective. 


Summary of the Technical Analysis for the NASDAQ

(This takes into account the near term, mid term, and longer term charts)

Our combined analysis for Friday tells us to expect the market to begin the day with a bias to increase, but important resistance levels now exist and if they hold downward sloping midterm patterns can surface in both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial average.  The Russell 2000 continues to look like the strongest market, the NASDAQ continues to underperform, but the new downward sloping midterm resistance lines that are forming in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial average pave the way for lower lows again if these resistance lines remain intact.  If they don't, if the downward sloping resistance lines break higher, a progression towards the neutral trend lines in the Dow Jones industrial average and S&P 500 that we have drawn to take advantage of downside moves will likely occur.  The market has already broken below these levels, and that makes them converted resistance lines, so if the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial average break above the downward sloping midterm resistance lines that exist today we should expect a progression towards the converted longer term resistance lines that were broken last Friday (18060 DJIA).

Initial intraday trading parameters for the NASDAQ exist between4851 - 4923
If 4851 breaks lower expect 4500
If4923breaks higher expect 4951
Otherwise expect4851 - 4923 to hold

If 4851 remains in tact as initial support, expect the market to increase to 4923. This reflects a tight near term down channel. However, and in line with our combined analysis, if 4851 breaks lower instead expect the market to decline to 4500 before it stabilizes again.


NEAR Term Analysis

Our combined near-term analysis tells us the market is likely to progress higher as it opens on Friday, but the Russell 2000 is very close to near term resistance already (The Russell is in an uptrend).  If the Russell breaks above resistance we should expect additional increases and tests of resistance in the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones industrial average as well, but if the Russell 2000 holds resistance lines the S&P 500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones industrial average could decline prematurely and define new neutral resistance lines in the near term patterns accordingly.  Inflection exists in the resistance line in the Russell 2000 uniquely.  This is not normal.

NEAR Term Support for the NASDAQ exists at 4848

NEAR Term Resistance for the NASDAQ exists at 4920

Nas_5_day


MID Term Analysis

Our combined midterm analysis suggests higher levels in the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 because the lowest levels of neutral support in those markets have been tested and the market has already begun to increase, but potential downward sloping midterm patterns are developing and the Dow Jones industrial average and S&P 500 as well.  These markets are very close to their respective midterm downward sloping resistance lines and if the markets decline from current levels or increase by a small amount and then turn down downward sloping midterm resistance lines will develop in both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones industrial average.  These are not yet solidified, the market would need to turn down at some point very soon for those to become solidified, but these are important to observe.

MID Term Support for the NASDAQ exists at 4851

MID Term Resistance for the NASDAQ exists at 4923

Nas_30_day


LONG Term Analysis

The NASDAQ, Dow Jones industrial average, and S&P 500 have all either tested longer-term resistance or came close enough for technical analysis to consider tests to have occurred.  In addition, the markets have begun to pull back from those tests and that opens the door for a retracement all the way to the upward sloping support lines.  In addition, the downside confirmation levels that exist in both the longer-term chart patterns of the dow Jones industrial average and S&P 500 also broke lower and the DOJI pattern that existed in the longer term pattern of the dow Jones industrial average from the week before was also confirmed with a negative engulfing candle this past week, which also indicates additional downside lies ahead.  Our combined longer-term analysis tells us that the risk of a progression down towards longer-term upward sloping support is real and already underway.  In the S&P 500, the downside target appears to be 1975, in the Dow Jones industrial average about 17,000, and in the NASDAQ about 4500.  According to that observation the biggest risk exists in the NASDAQ.

LONG Term Support for the NASDAQ exists at 4500

LONG Term Resistance for the NASDAQ exists at 5000

Nas_1_year