The S&P 500 Technical Analysis - A Specialist in Technical Analysis

For Mar, 05 2015

(Individual Chart Analysis)

This is a no-frills analysis.  It is not designed to look good, it is designed to be effective. 


Summary of the Technical Analysis for the S&P 500

(This takes into account the near term, mid term, and longer term charts)

Our combined analysis for Thursday tells us that the risks are very high, and although the Dow is holding 18060 thus far, and the S&P is holding 2097, the markets have threatened breaks of these longer term downside reversal confirmation levels, and they are still close enough to those levels to make the risks of breaks very high.  The midterm charts are interestingly upward sloping, and the near term charts downward sloping, but our combined analysis can be simplified by observing the long term patterns and 2101 in the S&P 500 too.  The risks from the long term patterns are clear given the market's test of 18060 in the Dow and 2097 in the S&P.  In addition, though, the S&P is below 2101 and this was a support level that has recently broken.  Therefore, this also acts as a converted resistance line.  For the current risks to diminish the S&P would need to break above 2101.  Our combined analysis is not bearish because longer term support is actually holding in the S&P and Dow thus far, but those levels are being tested, so if breaks do occur our combined analysis will turn aggressively bearish fast.

Initial intraday trading parameters for the S&P 500 exist between2097 - 2101
If 2097 breaks lower expect 2086
If2101breaks higher expect 2117
Otherwise expect2097 - 2101 to hold

If 2097 remains in tact as initial support, expect the market to increase to 2101. This reflects a tight near term down channel. However, and in line with our combined analysis, if 2097 breaks lower instead expect the market to decline to 2086 before it stabilizes again.


NEAR Term Analysis

Our combined near term analysis tells us that near term downward sloping resistance was tested in the S&P, Russell and NASDAQ and if these resistance lines hold the market is likely to begin the day with a bias to decline on Thursday and a test of downward sloping support should be expected.

NEAR Term Support for the S&P 500 exists at 2081

NEAR Term Resistance for the S&P 500 exists at 2100

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MID Term Analysis

 Our combined midterm analysis tells us that upward sloping midterm patterns have developed, but the market is very close to support, support lines that were identified based on Wednesday's lows, and in order for these midterm up-channels to hold the markets must hold support.  Int he S&P 2101 is now resistance too.  So, if the markets break support and the S&P holds below 2101 that would be bearish, or if the markets hold support and the S&P breaks back above 2101 that would be a positive technical catalyst instead.

MID Term Support for the S&P 500 exists at 2100

MID Term Resistance for the S&P 500 exists at 2118

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LONG Term Analysis

Our combined longer term analysis tells us that both the S&P and the Dow are flirting with breaks below their respective downside confirmation levels.  Those are 2097 in the S&P and 18060 in the DJIA.  The markets both tested these levels on Wednesday, they are holding so far, but the risks are now very high and if breaks take place the near-official tests of longer term resistance that happened last week will be enough, when coupled with the breaks below the downside confirmation levels, to suggest declines all the way to longer term support.  The risks are very high (5-6%)

LONG Term Support for the S&P 500 exists at 2097

LONG Term Resistance for the S&P 500 exists at 2134

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