Summary:
1295 is important support...
The Market
has been range bound for some time now and unless 1295 breaks lower it
is likely to turn up and retest 1355.
Technical Analysis
Support in the NASDAQ exists
at 1300 then 1295.
Resistance in the NASDAQ
exists at 1315 then 1355.
Initial Trading parameters:
1300-1315
These charts suggest that
the Market starts the day with a bias to decline.
| 1. |
If 1300 is broken
lower expect to see 1295 |
| 2. |
If 1295 is broken
lower expect aggressive selling |
| 3. |
If 1315 is broken
higher expect to see 1355. |
| 4. |
Otherwise expect the range between
1300-1315 to hold |
These charts are telling us that the Market is
near the bottom range of its recent flat channel, and unless the Market
breaks 1295 soon, we should expect an increase back to 1355.
Therefore, these charts tell us to look to buy
near this test of support in expectations of moves higher.
Volatility should be
moderate.
Click here to view the individual charts
Market
Commentary
If the Market
doesn't break below 1295 soon it is likely to bounce higher and test
1355 before finding meaningful resistance again.
Traders
Psychology
Trading
Approach
Expect the
Market to begin the day with a bias to decline.
Trading
parameters exist between 1300-1315.
If the Market
breaks below 1300 expect to see 1295. If 1295 is broken lower
expect aggressive selling.
If the Market
moves higher and above 1315 we should expect rather aggressive buying
and a test of 1355.
We should
look for a dip to near 1300 early in the day, and so long as 1295 does
not break lower, we should develop a long bias from that point on.
That means watch for a dip to 1300, and then buy near 1300 with
expectations of higher Market levels.
It also means
that if 1295 breaks lower wait until the Market moves above 1300 again
before re-instating long positions.
Trading
Ideas
MXIM short
34.8 target 32.8 stop 35.
CCMP buy near
40 target 43 stop 39.8
Use the ideas
listed above to day trade. Swing Trading ideas are offered over
e-mail and on the Trades Page. Watch for adjustments in the
Morning Report as well. Read the Traders Guide Completely and
understand it before attempting to follow any trades.
After-Market News
|
1. |
BMY:
|
Bristol-
Myers Squibb Co.'s Elliott Sigal, senior vice president of
global clinical and pharmaceutical development, comments on
the experimental cancer drug Erbitux and other products in
development.
``We're still very confident in the potential of Erbitux.
The issue is to work collaboratively with'' the Food and
Drug Administration. ``We can't say exactly when'' Erbitux
will be sold.
``We have several programs at work on cancer drugs,
including those we're developing in-house. We will have more
to say about our epothilone compound at the American Society
for Clinical Oncology meeting in May.
``Bristol-Myers will also have more to say about expanded
uses for (the schizophrenia drug) Abilify at the American
Psychiatric Association meeting in May. And we hope to
launch the HIV drug atazanavir in Europe and the U.S. this
year.'' |
|
|
|
2. |
IMCL:
|
ImClone
Systems Inc. said it received a $60 million payment from
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. as part of their agreement over the
development and marketing of the cancer treatment Erbitux.
The payment was part of an amended agreement for the
drug, New York-based ImClone said in a statement distributed
by Business Wire. The agreement was revised one year ago to
give greater control to development partner Bristol-Myers
and less money to ImClone.
ImClone is working to obtain U.S. approval for Erbitux
since the Food and Drug Administration refused to review an
application for the product in December 2001, citing
problems with the company's research. The shares fell 77
percent last year on the FDA decision and the indictment of
founder and former Chief Executive Officer Samuel Waksal on
insider trading charges. |
|
|
|
3. |
XOM:
|
Exxon Mobil
Corp., the world's largest publicly traded oil company,
secured a $6 billion letter of credit, according to
Bloomberg data.
Irving, Texas-based Exxon Mobil received the 364-day
commitment arranged by JP Morgan Chase & Co., the
second-largest U.S. bank, according to Bloomberg data.
|
|
|
| Market
Reaction: |
This news is positive for IMCL. |
| |
NASDAQ
Futures: NQ03H
Futures were
flat at the time of
this newsletter and this suggests a flat open on Thursday...
Economic
Reports
| Economic Data: |
|
ET |
Release |
Consensus |
|
08:30 |
Initial Claims |
403K |
|
08:30 |
Productivity-Rev. |
0.2% |
|
10:00 |
Factory Orders |
1.8% |
|
| Market Reaction |
Watch the Factory orders data and be braced for a
weak number. |
| |
Earnings
Reports
|
Before The Open |
|
|
|
Dillard's |
DDS |
1.26 |
|
ICN Pharm |
ICN |
0.13 |
|
During Market Hours |
|
|
|
National Semi |
NSM |
-0.03 |
|
After The Close |
|
|
|
Interpublic |
IPG |
0.18 |
|
Mandalay Resort |
MBG |
0.13 |
|
SeaChange |
SEAC |
-0.03 |
|
TiVo |
TIVO |
-0.31 |
|
We are not expecting any
Market reaction to this news. |
Potential
Market Moving Events
| 1. |
INTC will have a mid quarter update after the close on Thursday. |
| Market Reaction: |
We expect this to impact Friday's session. |
| |
The Last Trading Session
The Market on
Wednesday was range bound and directionless as Traders monitored the
political goings on in the World. The Market broke below support
and above resistance slightly at various times due to geopolitical news,
but ultimately the Market was drifting. The Index closed the
session near resistance and sentiment was mixed.
Lesson from the session:
Trading
parameters are critical elements to trading the Market. These
parameters tell you when to lighten up on long positions, or when to
jump into them. The same with shorts. They tell you where
to set protectionist stops and they warn you in advance of Market moves.
Simply, they are crucial tools to help guide your trading activities day
in and day out.
Performance
Day Trades:
We
made .42 points trading on Wednesday. We trade effectively
early but we continued to short DRYR as it spiked in expectations of a
reversal lower than didn't come until very late in the day.
|
Stock |
Long/Short |
Buy/Cover Price |
Sell/Short Price |
Profit (loss) |
|
MXIM |
Short |
33.6 |
33.4 |
(0.2) |
|
EXPE |
Long |
69.05 |
68.85 |
(0.2) |
|
EXPE |
Long |
69.05 |
68.85 |
(0.2) |
|
SYMC |
Short |
41 |
41.5 |
.5 |
|
DRYR |
Short |
60.2 |
60 |
(0.2) |
|
DRYR |
Short |
58.9 |
60 |
1.1 |
|
DRYR |
Short |
60.2 |
59.97 |
(0.23) |
|
DRYR |
Short |
60.2 |
60 |
(0.2) |
|
SYMC |
Short |
41.65 |
41.47 |
(0.18) |
|
DRYR |
Short |
62.2 |
61.98 |
(0.22) |
|
DRYR |
Short |
62.2 |
62 |
(0.2) |
|
QLGC |
Long |
35.4 |
35.2 |
(0.2) |
|
DRYR |
Short |
63.3 |
64.15 |
.85 |
|
Total |
|
|
|
.42 |
View Our Day Trade
Performance page for past performance
statistics.
Swing
Trades (The
focus 4 list)
We were stopped
out of EBAY.
If the Market
fails to break 1295 we may close this strategy in favor of a long
strategy.
There are only
2 open positions here so as 1295 is tested we are likely to call 1 or 2
long plays.
| STOCK |
Short
Entry Target |
Approx. Entry |
Current Price |
Net Gain: |
Target Price: |
Entry Date |
Exit Date |
Stop Limit: |
Status |
Re-entry strategy if stopped: |
| ERTS |
51.9 |
51.9 |
52.15 |
-.25 |
47.9 |
2/18/03 |
2/18/03 |
52.15 |
Stopped |
|
| ERTS |
51.9 |
51.9 |
52.15 |
-.25 |
47.9 |
2/19/03 |
2/21/03 |
52.15 |
Stopped |
|
| ERTS |
53 |
53 |
53.25 |
-.25 |
47.9 |
2/24/03 |
2/27/03 |
53.25 |
Stopped |
|
| ERTS |
53 |
53 |
52.79 |
.21 |
47.9 |
2/27/03 |
|
53.25 |
OPEN |
53 |
| EXPE |
63 |
63 |
63.25 |
-.25 |
50 |
2/18/03 |
2/18/03 |
63.25 |
Stopped |
|
| EXPE |
63 |
63 |
63.25 |
-.25 |
50 |
2/18/03 |
2/18/03 |
63.25 |
Stopped |
|
| EXPE |
63 |
63 |
63.25 |
-.25 |
50 |
2/20/03 |
2/20/03 |
63.25 |
Stopped |
|
| EXPE |
63 |
63 |
63.25 |
-.25 |
50 |
2/20/03 |
2/20/03 |
63.25 |
Stopped |
|
| EXPE |
63 |
63 |
63.25 |
-.25 |
50 |
2/19/03 |
2/19/03 |
63.25 |
Stopped |
|
| EXPE |
63.4 |
63.4 |
63.65 |
-.25 |
50 |
2/20/03 |
2/21/03 |
63.25 |
Stopped |
|
| EXPE |
65.8 |
65.8 |
66.05 |
-.25 |
50 |
2/24/03 |
2/24/03 |
66.05 |
Stopped |
|
| EXPE |
66.3 |
66.3 |
66.8 |
-.5 |
50 |
2/24/03 |
2/24/03 |
66.55 |
Stopped |
|
| EXPE |
66.6 |
66.6 |
66.85 |
-.25 |
50 |
2/24/03 |
2/24/03 |
66.85 |
Stopped |
|
| EXPE |
66.6 |
66.6 |
66.85 |
-.25 |
50 |
2/24/03 |
2/27/03 |
66.85 |
Stopped |
|
| EXPE |
66.6 |
67.1 |
68.15 |
-.25 |
50 |
2/27/03 |
2/27/03 |
68.15 |
Stopped |
|
| EXPE |
66.6 |
67.9 |
67.35 |
-.25 |
50 |
2/27/03 |
2/27/03 |
67.35 |
Stopped |
|
| EBAY |
76.85 |
76.85 |
77.1 |
-.25 |
67.5 |
2/19/03 |
2/20/03 |
77.1 |
Stopped |
|
| EBAY |
76.85 |
76.85 |
77.1 |
-.25 |
67.5 |
2/20/03 |
2/21/03 |
77.1 |
Stopped |
|
| EBAY |
78 |
78 |
78.25 |
-.25 |
67.5 |
2/24/03 |
2/24/03 |
78.25 |
Stopped |
|
| EBAY |
78 |
78 |
78.25 |
-.25 |
67.5 |
2/24/03 |
2/28/03 |
78.25 |
Stopped |
|
| EBAY |
78 |
78 |
78.25 |
-.25 |
67.5 |
3/3/03 |
3/4/03 |
78.25 |
Stopped |
|
| IBM |
79.8 |
79.8 |
77.73 |
2.07 |
72.8 |
2/20/03 |
|
80.05 |
OPEN |
79.85 |
| Total: |
|
|
|
-3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
Click on the link below to review our
Swing Trading results.
Swing
Trades Performance page
Long
Term Holds:
When we
initiate a long term portfolio like this we will find ourselves very
happy when the Market is moving higher, but rather upset when it moves
lower. The purpose of this strategy though is to disregard the
fluctuations in the Market in favor of longer term gains. Please
do not get excited by the increases in this portfolio, and do not let
the declines worry you. We have stops in place to prevent losses
in case we are wrong on our timing.
IMCL:
this is a long term hold.
TYC:
this is a long term hold.
AMAT: We
have not yet triggered AMAT
CSCO:
this is a long term hold.
GE:
this is a long term hold.
AMGN: this is a long term hold.
DELL:
this is a long term hold.
MSFT:
this is a long term hold.
INTC:
this is a long term hold.
| STOCK |
Long or Short |
Entry Target |
Approx. Entry |
Current Price |
Net Gain: |
Target Price: |
Stop Limit: |
Status |
Re-entry strategy: |
| TYC |
Stops |
# stops: |
5 |
|
-4.75 |
|
|
|
|
| TYC |
Long |
12 |
12 |
14.5 |
2.5 |
long term |
15.75 |
OPEN |
|
|
IMCL |
Long |
#stops |
3 |
|
-.75 |
|
9.75 |
|
|
|
IMCL |
Long |
10 |
10 |
16.23 |
6.23 |
long term |
9.75 |
OPEN |
|
|
AMAT |
stops |
# stops: |
9 |
|
-2.75 |
|
|
|
|
|
AMAT |
Long |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GE |
Stops |
# stops: |
14 |
|
-4 |
|
|
|
|
|
GE |
Long |
23 |
23 |
23.88 |
.88 |
long term |
22.75 |
OPEN |
|
|
AMGN |
Stops |
# stops: |
10 |
|
-2.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
AMGN |
Long |
36 |
36 |
55.1 |
19.1 |
long term |
35.75 |
OPEN |
|
|
DELL |
Stops |
# stops: |
6 |
|
-1.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
DELL |
Long |
23 |
23 |
26.63 |
3.63 |
long term |
22.75 |
OPEN |
|
|
MSFT |
Stops |
# stops: |
15 |
|
-3.75 |
|
|
|
|
|
MSFT |
Long |
24.25 |
|
|
|
long term |
24 |
|
|
|
INTC |
Stops |
# stops: |
12 |
|
-3 |
|
|
|
|
|
INTC |
Long |
16 |
16 |
16.99 |
.99 |
long term |
15.75 |
OPEN |
|
|
CSCO |
Stops |
#stops |
2 |
|
-.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
CSCO |
Long |
14 |
|
|
|
long term |
13.75 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Totals: |
|
|
|
|
12.8 |
|
|
|
|
Click on the link below to review our Special Situation trading
results.
Special Situation Performance page
Good Trading,
BM. |