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What to expect: GOOG, IBM, NOK, AMD

 

October 13, 2009

 

By: Dennis Hobein.

Contributor, Stock Traders Daily

Real Time Trading Reports:  Included are detailed trading reports designed to help investors realize opportunities in these companies as earnings are released.  The reports are linked to the stock symbols in the article below.

(La Jolla, CA)  The pace of third quarter earnings releases is about to pick up steam, and there are some widely followed technology names on the docket this week. With Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), IBM (NYSE: IBM), Nokia (NYSE: NOK), and Advanced Micro (NYSE: AMD) all slated to report results on Thursday, investors will get their first good look at how this quarter’s earnings results will play out in some key technology sectors. While each sector has its own expectations, bullish sentiment has generally been building throughout the quarter for large-cap technology stocks. This is highlighted by the ~17% gain for the PowerShares ETF (Nasdaq: QQQQ) -- which corresponds to the Nasdaq 100 -- since the end of the second quarter on June 30th. Below, we take a closer look at the expectations and the primary focus points for each of the aforementioned companies’ earnings reports.

Google Searching For A Beat

The Street , as well as investors, appear to be expecting a solid quarter from search engine giant GOOG (Nasdaq: GOOG). This is partially due to positive commentary over the past few weeks from its CEO, Eric Schmidt, when he stated that “the worst of the ad slump is over.. we’re clearly seeing aspects of a recovery in the U.S. and Europe.” For GOOG to meet consensus estimates, it will need to report earnings per share of $5.39 on revenue of $4.23 billion, which would represent 9.5% and 4.7% year-over-year growth, respectively. Outside of the top and bottom line numbers, one metric that garners significant attention is paid clicks -- an important component of GOOG’s revenue. After declining in the second half of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, paid clicks have stabilized with the company reporting 15% growth in the second quarter. Of course, competition between other search engines – namely Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO) and Microsoft’s (Nasdaq: MSFT) Bing – will be an area of focus, although GOOG still commands a dominating position at 64.6% of the search market share, according to comScore. It is worth mentioning that GOOG’s shares have climbed ~20% since it last reported, so if the company falls short of expectations, the risk of a sharp sell-off is prevalent. Therefore, risk control will be essential, so investors may want to access our free GOOG report to view trading strategies regarding this stock.

Better Top-Line Results In Store For Big Blue?

The good news is that IBM (NYSE: IBM) has beaten consensus earnings estimates for the past seven quarters. The bad news is that IBM has missed the revenue number the last four. So, will this be the quarter that “Big Blue” puts it all together and shows top-line growth again? The market seems to think so, as shares of IBM are currently trading at 52-week highs and are closing in on levels last seen in 2002. IBM has been executing well throughout the downturn, keeping a tight lid on costs, specifically through headcount reductions. However, with corporate budgets starting to loosen, IBM will need to report improved sales of storage and server equipment, which fell 26% year-over-year last quarter. Overall, consensus estimates indicate that IBM’s revenue is expected to decline 7.5% from last year to $23.4 billion. For traders looking for information on key price levels, take a look at our free IBM trading report.

Can Nokia Dial Up A Beat?

Handset maker NOK (NYSE: NOK) is also scheduled to release its third quarter results, and to get an indication of how the company’s quarter may have shaped up, we take a look at Research in Motion’s (NASDAQ: RIMM) recently reported (9/24) second quarter results. That cell phone maker reported disappointing top-line results and issued downside third quarter revenue guidance. Subsequently, the stock got hammered to the tune of a 17% sell off the following day. The two company’s are not exact comparables, since RIMM focuses more on upper end devices than NOK, but the sales shortcoming is still a concern. Competition is intense as well, as new smart-phone models continue to flood the market. This factor could pressure average selling prices for NOK. On the plus side, these concerns are well-known and may be priced into the stock, mitigating the downside risk should NOK miss the consensus estimates for earnings per share of $0.18 on revenue of $14.25 billion. 

Pick Up In Notebook/PC Demand A Positive For AMD

It has been quite a while since expectations were this bullish for semiconductor manufacturer AMD (NYSE: AMD). The reasoning behind the recent analyst upgrades and upward estimate revisions is mostly attributed to a rebound in notebook and PC sales, as well as leaner inventory levels in the channel. In the past two years, a glut of supply due to overly optimistic expectations from semiconductor and memory companies, combined with dwindling consumer demand from the recession, had plagued companies like AMD. However, the supply and demand balance seems to finally be in alignment now. We caution, though, that this does not suggest that “all is well” yet for AMD. In fact, the Street is still anticipating the company to lose considerable money this year and next. For the third quarter, analysts expect a loss $0.42/share with revenue of $1.26 billion. Just as the market may have priced in some of NOK’s issues, it seems fair to question whether the fundamental improvements have already been baked in for AMD.

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