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Turnaround for Airlines? – UAL, AMR, DAL, JBLU, LCC, ALK

 

 

October 20, 2009

 

BY Momei Qu:

Contributor, Stock Traders Daily

Real Time Trading Reports:  Included are detailed trading reports designed to help investors realize opportunities in these companies as earnings are released.  The reports are linked to the stock symbols in the article below. Performance - Click Here

(La Jolla, CA)  The airline industry has been in a slump due to decreasing travel demand (caused by the economic recession and the recent swine flu) as well as rising fuel prices. An unexpected uptick in fare sales during September, however, has analysts thinking perhaps the industry has a chance of turning around. In light of a thawing credit market, many carriers took on a new round of financing, putting themselves in a much better liquidity position to keep operating while waiting for the economy to recover. There was even more optimism today after United Airlines (NYSE: UAL) reported a much narrower loss than projected - $0.39 a share compared to $0.94 a share. Let’s take a look at how the other airlines reporting this week are expected to do.

American Airlines (NYSE: AMR) is the first to announce earnings on Wednesday. Analysts are predicting a loss of $0.86 a share on revenues of $5.1 billion. Last quarter AMR missed estimates after reporting $1.39 a share of net loss compared to the predicted $1.28 a share. This quarter looks more promising as AMR recently obtained $2.9 billion in new financing and will use the new fund to purchase additional aircraft and shift capacity to major hub cities such as Miami, Chicago, and New York. Reduced capacity between less popular destinations has also led to fuller planes and more profits. AMR closed at $7.45 a share Monday, up almost 300% from its low point in March. To find out if AMR has potential to rise to its 52 week high of $12.48 again, download our free AMR trading report.

Delta Airlines (NYSE:DAL), scheduled to report earnings Thursday, are expected to lose $0.07 a share on $7.6 billion revenue, compared to $0.13 a share net loss and $5.7 billion revenue in 3Q 2008. DAL has seen an increase in sales after its largest competitors, AirTran, AMR, and Continental, cut back on capacity in cities where DAL has a large presence. DAL also has more cash compared to its rivals to weather the downturn following a new round of financing. DAL closed at $8.99 a share Monday, up over 200% from March. Will DAL emerge as a leading player again after its bankruptcy reorganization with Northwest? Read our free DAL trading report to find out.

Also scheduled to report Thursday is U.S. Airways (NYSE: LCC), one of the hardest hit stocks during the recession. It’s expected to lose $0.89 a share. LCC saw its value drop to $1.97 in March before steadily recovering to close at $4.18 Monday. LCC is another airline to raise new capital, obtaining $138 million at the end of last month, which should be sufficient to carry it through another round of rising fuel prices or continued (but slowing) downturn. A positive turn of events is the decision by Southwest, its biggest competitor, to cut capacity in mutual flying zones by almost 10%. Despite these recent developments, LCC is still far from its 52 week high of $11.24 a share. To learn how to take advantage of LCC’s low value, download our free LCC trading report.

Rounding out the earnings announcement Thursday are two smaller carriers predicted to report the best results. JetBlue (Nasdaq: JBLU) and Alaska Air (NYSE: ALK) are two of the few airlines expected to turn a profit. Both have benefited from low-fares, creative marketing, and customer loyalty, as well as the cutback on capacity by larger air carriers. JBLU reported one of the largest increases in traffic in September – 9.8%. Although third quarter has always been the best quarter for airlines due to end of summer travels, an increase in demand is not guaranteed. Last year JBLU saw traffic drop 4.8% in September, so this quarter’s result is a positive sign. JBLU is projected announce earnings of $0.05 a share on Thursday. Its stock closed at $5.94 a share Monday, about 76% of its 52 week high. ALK has continued to profit from its West Coast concentration, and its cost control strategies have earned analysts’ confidence that it will report earnings of $2.10 a share. Compared to other airlines, ALK’s stock took a much milder hit earlier this year and recent activity has pushed its value to $27.89, not far from its 52 week high of $30.95. To learn more about timing and risk control when deciding to invest JBLU or ALK stocks, take a look at our at free JBLU and free ALK trading reports. 

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