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What To Expect: AMZN, NFLX, EMC, BRCM

 

October 21, 2009

BY Dennis Hobein:

Contributor, Stock Traders Daily

Real Time Trading Reports:  Included are detailed trading reports designed to help investors realize opportunities in these companies as earnings are released.  The reports are linked to the stock symbols in the article below. Performance - Click Here

(La Jolla, CA)  With about two weeks of third quarter earnings in the books, the market has had a chance to analyze the results from some of the world’s largest technology companies. For the most part, large-cap techs have not disappointed, with names like Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), and Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) each handily topping Wall Street’s expectations. The upside results have bolstered the bulls’ case that an economic recovery is underway. However, while the headline numbers have looked good for these companies, it is worth pointing out that in many cases, the top-line growth is still lacking. For example, IBM (NYSE: IBM), Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN), and INTC all reported year-over-year declines in revenue, while GOOG’s top-line grew a modest 8%.

Today, we will highlight Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) and Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX), which are expected to report strong double-digit revenue growth. We also take a look at the expectations for data storage equipment maker EMC (NYSE: EMC) and semiconductor manufacturer Broadcom (Nasdaq: BRCM) – two companies that operate in sectors that may have quicker rates of recovery than other technology areas. All four of these companies are set to report third quarter earnings on October 22nd.

Amazing Results In-Store For Amazon?

On-line retailer AMZN is expected to report EPS of $0.33 on revenue of $5.1 billion. If the company’s results are in-line with consensus estimates, it would equate to top and bottom line growth of 22% and 19%, respectively. Impressively, Amazon’s top line has grown at double digit rates in every quarter since some of the first signs of the economic collapse became evident in late 2007 and early 2008 – a very rare feat. This helps to explain the meteoric rise in the stock, which has nearly doubled this year. The catalyst for Amazon has been the robust sales of its most popular product, the Kindle reader. However, due to the success of this wireless reading device, new, formidable competitors have entered the fray. For instance, GOOG announced plans to open its own on-line book store, Barnes and Noble (NYSE: BKS) is releasing an e-reader, and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) has engaged the company in a price war on many top selling books. The likely result is that Amazon’s margins are going to be pressured in the upcoming quarters, which poses a risk to the stock. This is especially alarming because the market seems to be pricing in “perfection” from the company with a one-year forward P/E of 44x. To get a more comprehensive technical look at AMZN, be sure to check out our free trading report on the stock.

Market Looking For Blockbuster Results From Netflix

NFLX has beaten its earnings expectations in each of the past five quarters, and, just like Amazon.com, it has kept its top-line growing throughout the recession. For the third quarter, investors and traders are looking for more of the same from the leading on-line movie rental outlet. The formula for its financial success, and consequently the stock’s 65% return this year, has been strong subscriber growth rates and low churn. The company has been capitalizing on the demise of “brick-and-mortar” stores such as Blockbuster (NYSE: BBI), taking away substantial market share. Additionally, Netflix has an intriguing growth opportunity in the instant streaming distribution segment because of its key relationships with leading technology OEMs such as TiVo (Nasdaq: TIVO) and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT). Like AMZN, however, the company faces a difficult competitive environment, going up against GOOG’s YouTube, Hulu.com, and RedBox kiosks, to name a few. At this point, though, NFLX is viewed as having a leg up on the field, which is reflected in the stock price as shares are approaching all-time high levels. To get a better feel for trading this stock, please look at our free trading reports.

Resilient Storage Sector Supporting EMC

EMC’s recent growth rates aren’t quite as impressive as AMZN or NFLX, but its business has held up fairly well due to its strong position in the resilient data storage and backup/recovery/archive markets. Heading into its third quarter earnings release, analysts appear to be bullish on the stock, with several sell-side institutions raising target prices on shares over the past two weeks. Enterprise IT budgets appear to be loosening, which could lead to more (and larger) deal sizes for EMC. Despite the economy, the company has been aggressive with its capital spending plans, announcing a major $2.1 billion acquisition of Data Domain in July this year. Revenue contribution from Data Domain, in combination with strong sales of its new, high-end storage equipment, could help EMC beat its third quarter estimates of $0.21 in EPS and sales of $3.45 billion. Before trading EMC shares, we suggest reading our free EMC trading report to devise a specific trading strategy for that stock.

Semiconductor Recovery Bodes Well For Broadcom

Shares of BRCM have been on a tear since March, steadily trending higher to nearly double over that time. To keep the momentum going, the company will need to provide better-than-expected third quarter results, coupled with upside fourth quarter guidance. Fortunately, the market has already received a few clues about BRCM’s quarter due to the earnings reports from other semi’s such as INTC, TXN, as well as from iPhone maker AAPL – a purchaser of BRCM components. Each of those companies easily surpassed Street expectations, which bodes well for BRCM. Current consensus estimates are looking for EPS to grow 6% to $0.33 and revenue to fall 9% to $1.16 billion. If you are interested in trading BRCM prior to its earnings release, you may want to read our free BRCM trading report before entering a trade.

 

 

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