Best ETFs of 2009: KOL, RSX, USD, INTC, SDK, TLT
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December 29, 2009
BY Billy Fisher:
Contributor, Stock Traders Daily
Real Time Trading Reports: Included are detailed trading reports designed to help investors realize opportunities in these companies. The reports are linked to the stock symbols in the article below.
(La Jolla, CA) With few exceptions, the wild ride that the market had from 2008 through 2009 was almost unprecedented. The plunge and subsequent road to recovery produced a complete shake up among the top performing ETFs. Although the broader markets may not experience such drastic moves next year, it is possible that the best ETFs of 2009 could be setting up to underperform in 2010 as the rollercoaster continues along its course.
Here is a look at a sample of some of the best performing ETFs from 2009 and the fate of some of the best performers from 2008.
The Best of 2009
At the time of this writing, the top performing non-leveraged ETF of 2009 was the Market Vectors Coal ETF (NYSE: KOL). After a rocky 2008, KOL managed to reverse course and check in with a return of 144.5% in 2009. It will be interesting to see in which direction this ETF is headed from here.
On one hand, pushes from Congress, the EPA and the clean energy movement could limit this sector’s upward movement with regulation. However, in the absence of effective legislation the International Energy Agency has predicted that the demand for coal will continue to rise faster than that of any other fuel. Traders looking to weigh in on this matter by trading this ETF can benefit by reviewing our free KOL trading report.
The number two non-leveraged ETF of 2009 also benefitted greatly from a rebound in commodity prices in 2009. The Market Vectors Russia ETF (NYSE: RSX) is up 141.6% as we approach the final trading days of the year. With a 41.5% weighting in oil and gas, the fate of this ETF will be largely tied in to the success or failure of the petroleum market. The Russian economy and stock market have been extremely volatile in recent years, so the direction of this ETF will also be difficult to predict. Traders looking to take a long or short position in this fund are advised to check out our free RSX trading report before pulling the trigger.
Another notable performer from 2009 was the Ultra Semiconductor ProShares Fund (NYSE: USD). Coming on the heels of a year in which semis took it on the chin, USD has shifted course in 2009 and is up 134.3% year-to-date. Given that Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) accounts for 26.8% of this ETF’s weight, individual developments specific to Intel should be closely monitored by traders looking to take a position in this fund. Traders can review our free USD and free INTC trading reports for additional information.
Role Reversal
ETFs that were short semiconductors were among the very best performing ETFs in 2008, yet they fell to the bottom of the barrel in 2009 as the market for semis began to stabilize. There are numerous examples this year of role reversals taking place in the ETF world. Here are two others worth noting.
In 2008, the UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth Fund (NYSE: SDK) surged 98.5% and was at the top of the class of ETFs. As mid-sized retail and consumer discretionary stocks rallied back in 2009, SDK quickly sank to the bottom of the ETF universe. With a year-to-date return of -66.1%, SDK is setting up to finish in the top 20 of the worst performing ETFs in 2009.
Another ETF that has experienced a radical change in fortunes had been the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (NYSE: TLT). After a 33.9% return in 2008 which was among the best performances by a non-leveraged long ETF, TLT has fallen off of a cliff in 2009. TLT has fallen 22.4% this year and will likely finish the year in the bottom 10th percentile of all ETFs tracked by Morningstar.
Traders looking to take a position on the future of these extreme shifts can review our free SDK and free TLT trading reports for additional analysis.
Looking for the best ETFs for 2010? Check out dynamic real-time trading reports published by Stock Traders Daily CEO, Tom Kee Jr., with a Free Trial.YTD 2009, Kee's Position Trades are up +56% on 4 trades.
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