BY Thomas H. Kee Jr:

Editor, Stock Traders Daily

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(La Jolla, CA)  The US Government may say that they consider the decline in the dollar orderly, but the world sees it a different way.  US dollar policy is frustrating foreign governments.  They are witnessing the unabated allowance of dollar decline, without any support measures being taken.  For those foreign current accounts that hold significant dollars, this has been devastating.

Before you continue, understand that I became bullish on Gold in September, which may have been a little late to the game, but since September 1^st the three Gold plays I suggested are up significantly.  GLD is up about 25%, UGL (NYSE: UGL) is up about 58%, and DGL (NYSE: DGL) is up about 25% respectively.  In every consideration, Gold has spiked since that September recommendation.  Please review my September Marketwatch column for details:  http://www.stocktradersdaily.com/about/index.html

• ·         I believe the 3-4 month surge that Gold (NYSE: GLD) has seen recently will soon reverse. 

• ·         My position is based on the direction of the dollar (NYSE: UUP). 

• ·         I believe the dollar will stabilize very soon due to revised US Policy.

Reasonably, our stock market has been surging because the dollar has been weak, and that means our goods and services are cheaper worldwide.  However, foreign central banks have lost significantly along the way.  This is where the ‘world currency debate’ comes from.  In the past year, the dollar has declined significantly, but more important to this conversation and to Foreign governments, since 2002 the dollar has collapsed.  Have a look at the chart below (not shown in this transcript).

Since 2002, investments in the dollar are down 38%, and that includes a 16% slide in the past 12 months.  For those countries holding billions of dollars in reserve, that translates into a substantial loss.  The table below shows the top 10 holders of US Dollars worldwide:

MAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF TREASURY SECURITIES

(in billions of dollars)

HOLDINGS 1/ AT END OF PERIOD

Sep     Aug     Jul     Jun     May     Apr     Mar     Feb     Jan     Dec     Nov     Oct     Sep

Country               2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2008    2008    2008    2008

------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------

China, Mainland       798.9   797.1   800.5   776.4   801.5   763.5   767.9   744.2   739.6   727.4   713.2   684.1   618.2

Japan                 751.5   731.2   724.5   711.8   677.2   685.9   686.7   661.9   634.8   626.0   625.2   629.6   617.5

United Kingdom 2/     249.3   226.9   219.9   214.0   163.7   152.7   128.1   129.0   123.9   130.9   132.4   133.1   112.8

Oil Exporters 3/      185.3   189.1   189.2   191.2   192.8   189.5   192.0   181.7   186.6   186.2   187.2   176.7   171.2

Carib Bnkng Ctrs 4/   171.7   179.9   193.2   189.7   194.8   204.7   213.6   189.1   176.6   197.5   205.0   203.5   169.3

Brazil                144.9   137.3   138.1   139.8   127.1   126.0   126.6   130.8   133.5   127.0   136.1   141.0   148.3

Hong Kong             132.2   124.7   115.3    99.8    93.2    80.9    78.9    76.3    71.7    77.2    70.6    69.8    65.5

Russia                121.8   121.6   118.0   119.9   124.5   137.0   138.4   130.1   119.6   116.4   108.0   110.8    99.6

Luxembourg             98.7    94.2    92.0   104.1    96.2    97.4   106.0    92.1    87.0    97.3    94.2   100.6   104.5

Taiwan                 78.1    75.9    77.4    77.0    75.7    78.3    74.8    72.6    73.3    71.8    70.2    65.9    63.0

Recently, China has been vocal, and Japan has too.  They want the dollar to stabilize, and for good reason.  These countries hold more dollar reserves than any other nation.  They have lost billions as a result.  They are not the only ones concerned with this though.

In September, when I issued my Gold recommendations, The President of the World Bank made concerning comments about the Dollar.  Quite simply, he believes the dollar will lose its stronghold as a world currency.  In large part, that is because of our debt levels, and its decline.  Read more about that here:  http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/29/business/economy/29dollar.html

Think of the dollar as a stock representing the United States.  People buy our stock if our country is doing well, and they sell it if we are not.  This is a little oversimplified, evident by the blip in the flight to safety that occurred in 2008, but it is true.  That flight to safety has already reversed, and now the dollar is back on course, which means its decline.  Refer to the first chart in this article, and review the blip higher in 2008.  Foreign nations wanted dollars when the world economy collapsed, and that was because they panicked.  The knee jerk reaction was to buy dollars, because that is what they have been trained to do when times get tough. 

However, once the dust settled, they again realized that the dollar is not a good place to be.  They let their money do the talking, and sold dollars again as they have been since the 2002 peak.  That caused the decline in 2009.  Reality set in, and debt reconciliation was added back into the equation as the panic of 2008 came full circle. 

The heat has officially been turned up on the United States to stabilize the dollar.

China has spoken:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/33781022

Japan is also concerned about a collapse in its economy as a result of the US dollar policy.  Japan is trying to support the dollar itself, but we know that will not be effective.

At first glance some capitalists may say, ‘so what!  We are worried about our economy, not theirs.’  However, there is an additional catalyst.  That catalyst is our debt levels, and this is where the shift in my point of view comes from.

• ·         The flight to safety has come full circle. 

• ·         The dollar has resumed its steep decline. 

• ·         The US Government has a huge debt burden.

• ·         The US Government needs to issue bonds to satisfy that debt.

• ·         The US needs foreign investors to invest in dollars (Treasury Bonds).

• ·         Foreign Investors do not see value in US Bonds right now.

In March, The US initiated a $1.2 Trillion stimulus program in which they effectively bought Treasuries at Auction by replacing Agency bonds in foreign current accounts with Treasuries.  This created a false demand for Treasuries.  That program has since been exhausted, and the last round of inflated bid – covers in the shorter durations have concluded as well.  The longer duration bid – cover ratio has already fallen hard. 

The image below is hard to read (not shown in this transcript), but it is clear in the YouTube video I have produced to explain it.  This image shows us that the Bid – Cover ratio of the Long Bond has already begun to decline.  The demand ratios increased from the March announcement until September.  That is when the $300 Billion long bond repurchase was complete.  Now, as of last week, the inflated demand ratios associated with the shorter-term durations are likely to wane too, because that portion of the $1.2 buyback program has also finished.  The long bond repurchases finished before the shorter durations, so the bid – cover ratios for the long bond declined first. 

Learn more about that here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oe3AEN1IqlQ

This changes the playing field completely. 

If the inflated demand ration decline, we will continue to see declines in the bid-cover ratios in the long bond, and if those declines flow to shorter durations as I expect given the exhausted buy back program and associated dollar slide, the Treasury will need to take action.  If those demand levels decline, they will need to take action to encourage demand.

It is not a case of economy; it is a case of debt reconciliation, and that forces the hand of a Government that tells everyone it is on hold.   To satisfy debt obligations, the US needs the demand for US Treasuries to remain robust.  Because the $1.2 Trillion buyback program has been exhausted, they can no longer inflate demand. 

How do they create additional demand?  - Pay more to the buyers – Raise Interest Rates.

In order to create demand for US Treasuries, which in turn will allow the Government to satisfy its obligations, the US must raise interest rates.  It is not a case of economic conditions.  It has now turned to a case of debt consideration.  Foreign governments do not want US assets right now.  They do not want to see more of a decline in dollars when other investments are performing much better.  The largest holders of dollars have been vocal about this.  They are not buying new dollars, and the US cannot convert their Agency Bonds into Treasury Bonds anymore.

From here, the demand ratios will be much more true, more so than they have been since March.

I expect a sharp decline in the bid – cover ratios of shorter duration bonds almost immediately.  When that happens, I expect the Treasury to take action.  I have therefore defined ‘The foreseeable future’.  The ‘foreseeable future’ will last until the demand for Treasuries begins to dry up.  I expect that to happen imminently.  Therefore, I expect interest rates to increase soon thereafter, when the FOMC takes action. 

If that happens, the dollar will stabilize, Gold will fall, and current treasury bonds will lose value in Dollar terms as well.  Yes, current holders of US treasuries will lose money again.  That could also cause a rush to sell, which would cause a swift decline in Treasuries, something no one seems to be expecting right now.  I am the exception to that rule.  I am expecting Treasury bond prices to fall hard in the coming months.  I expect it to start with concerning bid to cover ratios, then I expect an interest rate hike, then I expect US Treasury Bondholders to sell into that transition.  TBT (NYSE: TBT) is a great option.

Smart Money is likely to take action very soon.  This report is Ahead of the Curve, timely, and immediately actionable. 

Thomas H. Kee Jr.

Note:  This is a transcript of a December 2, 2009 report published to clients.

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