Macroeconomic Analysis

Comprehensive macroeconomic observations

Our macroeconomic observations are focused on liquidity.  Liquidity is the driving force behind asset prices.  The more money chasing assets, the higher those asset prices will go, and vice versa.  More specifically, new money matters much more than old money because old money cannot be churned to push asset prices higher.  Therefore, our focus is on the rate of change in the amount of new money available to be invested into the economy every year looking ahead by decades.

We offer a few popular macroeconomic pieces:

Global liquidity Report: Our Global Liquidity reports are distributed to institutional investors worldwide.  This series began in 2012 when stimulus shifted to spur asset prices higher (away from stabilizing financial markets).  This report measures the changes to global liquidity that are coming so investors can measure the risks that lay ahead before they come.

Evitar Corte Model: This model seeks to avoid market crashes by using the FOMC monetary policy as a guide.  If we listen to what they are saying we can identify market crash conditions before they come. This model has identified every market crash since the turn of the century, and it is highly accurate.

FOMC observations: We are experts at interpreting the language of the FOMC and combining that with their guidance.  We decipher the FOMC for our clients so they can easily understand what the FOMC is telling us to expect.  We read in between the lines so our clients don't need to do the work themselves.

The Investment Rate:  The Investment Rate was the most accurate leading longer term stock market and economic indicator in history before stimulus was introduced by Ben Bernanke in 2012.  It was the sole determinant of new asset demand.  The Investment Rate measures the rate of change in the amount of natural new money that is slated to be invested into the US economy dating back to 1900 and looking ahead by decades.  When coupled with stimulus observations The Investment Rate helps produce our Global Liquidity Report.

Economic Observations: We weed out the noise and focus on the economic reports that are most important to the stock market and the economy.  This changes from time to time as the stock market becomes more sensitive to varying conditions, and we adapt accordingly.

Details about each of these can be found on our macro tab in our members website.